The Growth in the Social Security Disability Rolls: A Fiscal Crisis Unfolding

More than 80 percent of nonelderly U.S. adults are insured against the risk of disabling physical or mental illness by Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI). This article evaluates the causes of the extraordinary growth in SSDI enrollment, considers its fiscal ramifications, and discusses potential policy responses. While aggregate population health has improved by most measures in recent decades, the rate of SSDI receipt among nonelderly adults has nearly doubled since 1984. We project that SSDI receipt will rise by an additional seventy percent before reaching a steady state rate of approximately 6.5 percent of adults between the ages of 25 and 64, with cash benefit payments exceeding $150 billion annually (excluding Medicare). We trace the rapid expansion of SSDI to: (1) congressional reforms to disability screening in 1984 that enabled workers with low mortality disorders such as back pain, arthritis and mental illness to more readily qualify for benefits; (2) a rise in the after-tax DI income replacement rate, which strengthened the incentives for workers to seek benefits; (3) and a rapid increase in female labor force participation that expanded the pool of insured workers. Notably, the aging of the baby boom generation has contributed little to the growth of SSDI to date. Among several avenues for reducing SSDI growth, we suggest that the most promising are revamping the disability appeals process--in which the Social Security Administration currently loses nearly three-quarters of all appeals--and reducing the attractiveness of DI benefits for work-capable disabled individuals by providing additional access to public health insurance. By contrast, previous efforts to reduce the SSDI rolls by discontinuing benefits or by providing stronger return-to-work incentives have proved remarkably unsuccessful.

The Rise in Disability Recipiency and the Decline in Unemployment

Between 1984 and 2000, the share of non-elderly adults receiving benefits from the Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) programs rose from 3.1 to 5.3 percent. We trace this growth to reduced screening stringency and, due to the interaction between growing wage inequality and a progressive benefits formula, a rising earnings replacement rate. We explore the implications of these changes for the level of labor force participation among the less skilled and their employment responses to adverse employment shocks. Following program liberalization in 1984, DI application and recipiency rates became two to three times as responsive to plausibly exogenous labor demand shocks. Contemporaneously, male and female high school dropouts became increasingly likely to exit the labor force rather than enter unemployment in the event of an adverse shock. The liberalization of the disability program appears to explain both facts. Accounting for the role of disability in inducing labor force exit among the low-skilled unemployed, we calculate that the U.S. unemployment rate would be two-thirds of a percentage point higher at present were it not for the liberalized disability system.

Lean Thinking: Theory, Application and Dissemination

This book was written and compiled by the University of Huddersfield to share the learnings and experiences of seven years of Knowledge Transfer Partnership (KTP) and Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) funded projects with the National Health Service (NHS). The focus of these projects was the implementation of Lean thinking and optimising strategic decision making processes. Each of these projects led to major local improvements and this book explains how they were achieved and compiles the lessons learnt. The book is split into three chapters; Lean Thinking Theory, Lean Thinking Applied and Lean Thinking Dissemination

Quarterly Economic Commentary, July 1997

The rapid growth of the Irish economy is continuing. It now seems likely that real GNP in 1997 will increase by about 7 per cent, compared with the annual average rise of 7Yz per cent shown in official estimates for the past three years. Annual average employment is forecast to rise by just over 50,000, and a further substantial improvement in the public finances is certain, with the EBR perhaps falling to about £100 million or 0.2 per cent of GNP. Some slight acceleration in the rate of consumer price inflation seems likely in the second half of the year, leading to an annual average increase of about 1% per cent. However, the achievement of the authorities in maintaining the Irish pound as one of the most stable currencies in Europe, on a trade-weighted basis, over the past twelve months should preclude a more rapid rise in prices in 1997

The Impact of Disability Benefits on Labor Supply: Evidence from the VA's Disability Compensation Program

Combining administrative data from the US Army, Department of Veterans Affairs, and Social Security Administration, we analyze the effect of the VA's Disability Compensation (DC) program on veterans' labor force participation and earnings. We study the 2001 Agent Orange decision, a unique policy change that expanded DC eligibility for Vietnam veterans who served in theater but did not expand eligibility to other veterans of this era, to assess the causal effects of DC enrollment. We estimate that benefits receipt reduced veterans' labor force participation by 18 percentage points, though measured income net of transfer income rose on average.United States. Social Security Administration (grant #10-P-98363-1-05 to the National Bureau of Economic Research as part of the SSA Retirement Research Consortium

Moral Hazard and Claims Deterrence in Private Disability Insurance

Exploiting within-firm, over-time variation in plan parameters for nearly 10,000 Long Term Disability (LTD) policies held by US employers, we present the first empirical analysis of the determinants of private LTD spells. We find that a shorter waiting period and a higher replacement rate increase the incidence of LTD spells. Sixty percent of the latter effect is due to the mechanical censoring of shorter spells, with the remainder due to the deterrence of spells that would have continued beyond the waiting period. Deterrence is driven primarily by a reduction in the incidence of shorter duration spells and less severe disabilities

Experiments on Adaptive Techniques for Host-Based Intrusion Detection

This research explores four experiments of adaptive host-based intrusion detection (ID) techniques in an attempt to develop systems that can detect novel exploits. The technique considered to have the most potential is adaptive critic designs (ACDs) because of their utilization of reinforcement learning, which allows learning exploits that are difficult to pinpoint in sensor data. Preliminary results of ID using an ACD, an Elman recurrent neural network, and a statistical anomaly detection technique demonstrate an ability to learn to distinguish between clean and exploit data. We used the Solaris Basic Security Module (BSM) as a data source and performed considerable preprocessing on the raw data. A detection approach called generalized signature-based ID is recommended as a middle ground between signature-based ID, which has an inability to detect novel exploits, and anomaly detection, which detects too many events including events that are not exploits. The primary results of the ID experiments demonstrate the use of custom data for generalized signature-based intrusion detection and the ability of neural network-based systems to learn in this application environment